2021 Victorian Derby preview and tip

First run in 1855, the Victorian Derby is a staying race for three-year-old horses. It is run over 2500 metres, which often leads to it being a hard race to do the form for due to all the horses being tested over this journey for the first time. This year the race consists only of […]

2021 Victorian Derby preview and tip

First run in 1855, the Victorian Derby is a staying race for three-year-old horses.

It is run over 2500 metres, which often leads to it being a hard race to do the form for due to all the horses being tested over this journey for the first time.

This year the race consists only of colts and geldings, which is normally the case due to the VRC Oaks run next Thursday over the same trip being a filly-only race.

This year’s race is no exception. Last-start Moonee Valley Vase winner over 2040 metres, Forgot You, is the current favourite at $3.50.

His form is almost impeccable and most expect him to run out the endurance-testing distance of the race with no issues. He has drawn perfectly in barrier seven and looks hard to beat.

The second favourite is Gunstock, currently at $4. He was equal favourite prior to the barrier draw. When the barriers were drawn, he copped barrier 19, the second widest barrier.

Last year’s Melbourne Cup-winning jockey Jye McNeil has a task on his hands to get him an economical run in transit and be every chance to run the trip out.

If you ignore his barrier, similar to Forgot You, his form is excellent and gives no concern about the testing distance of the race I continue to mention.

There are plenty of chances outside of the favoured two runners. Hitousu hit the line very hard in the Caufield Guineas. He is bred to get this distance.

Tutukaka simply outstayed his rivals in the Geelong Classic over 2200 metres. He shouldn’t have worries with the distance and James McDonald will most likely press forward from barrier 12.

Commander Harry almost stole the race Forgot You won last weekend, making it a staying test with a bold ride from Linda Meech. She stays aboard and if she takes up similar tactics, he will give a sight at huge odds.

Cheerful Moment – an ex-WA galloper – has been around the mark in some races already mentioned in this article. He should find the line strong. He is another at huge odds I can’t discount.

Sports opinion delivered daily 

   

But as the title says, a tip for this race is included. As I mentioned, this race is a challenging one to point to the winner but a horse at double-figure odds has caught my eye.

Alegron for the Godolphin team looks primed for this challenge. He brings a form line from Sydney of two runs behind a horse who could be a star next autumn in Profondo.

He recorded blistering late sectionals over the 1800 metres and then again over the 2000 metres and the eye reflected what the times suggest in that 2500 metres is no worries.

He has Brett Prebble on his back. He is the form jockey of this spring carnival and from barrier nine should get a lovely run midfield.

Hopefully this horse travels well into the straight and is presented with something to give. Currently $11/$3.60, he is worthy of an each-way bet.

Quickly, another horse worth a small each-way bet on at $151/$41 is El Rocko.

He has been boxing on the pace over staying trips of late and from barrier 16 you are almost guaranteed he goes forward hopefully can give a sight at huge odds.

Selections: 3-1-13-2

Suggested bets
#3 each way (0.5-unit win, 1-unit place)
#13 each way (0.1-unit win, 0.4-unit place)
#1, #2, #3, #12 boxed exacta.

Source : The Roar Horse Racing More   

What's Your Reaction?

like
0
dislike
0
love
0
funny
0
angry
0
sad
0
wow
0

Next Article

Harness racing selections: Tuesday, October 26

There are two meetings to look at on Tuesday, with my attention being at Bendigo and Menangle. Below are the best bets for the respective programs. Bendigo Best bet: Race 3, Number 1, Younggiftedandblack It looks like a pretty strong race for the babies but I am confident this filly can get the job done […]

Harness racing selections: Tuesday, October 26

There are two meetings to look at on Tuesday, with my attention being at Bendigo and Menangle. Below are the best bets for the respective programs.

Bendigo

Best bet: Race 3, Number 1, Younggiftedandblack
It looks like a pretty strong race for the babies but I am confident this filly can get the job done at start three. This horse had one run in NZ, which was a strong second at Addington. This horse’s Australian debut came at Terang when attempting to lead throughout and just tiring late in what was a good race. This horse finds the front here from the pole and will take running down.

Next best: Race 7, Number 1, Alakazam
Adam Kelly has done a really good job with this three-year-old. This horse is racing in strong form at the moment and comes here as a last-start winner after a dominant all-the-way win at Maryborough last time. From the pole, this horse should have little trouble holding the lead and proving hard to get past.

Value: Race 9, Number 1, Rosie Rocks
This is an even race for the three-year-olds so I am happy to speck one at a price in the shape of this filly, who resumes for Julie Douglas. This horse was formerly with the Prior camp so is having her first run for the new camp. The form is nothing to get excited about, and this horse comes here with no public trials, but I have to respect the stable, and this horse finds a thin race.

Sports opinion delivered daily 

   

Menangle

Best bet: Race 2, Number 6, Alluring Tyron
She’ll likely go around at short odds, but it should be a relatively easy watch and she can be a multi anchor on a meeting where there are several shorties going around. The form around her the past couple of runs just reads so well for this and with the lead hers for the taking, she just has to trot all the way and she wins.

Next best: Race 7, Number 6, Triple Four
Jumping to metro level from Wagga isn’t a form reference that I’d jump up and down about, but this guy looks like an exciting prospect. This horse is a former Kiwi that has been unbeaten in two Australian runs, both coming at Wagga, and each time he has smashed the clock in doing so. He looks like he will love Menangle and he’ll go through his grades.

Value: Race 5, Number 2, Miss Aeyla
I’d be somewhat shocked if she wins given there is a $1.20 pop around, but she will likely go around a good price and is worth a small 1×3 ticket. Because the map looks kind to her, that is a betting option. The favourite leads, the pole marker holds leaders back and this girl lands three back in what will be a peg-dominated affair. Recent runs have been sound and this horse can be dangerous if the favourite is off its game.

Source : The Roar Horse Racing More   

This site uses cookies. By continuing to browse the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies.