Harness racing selections: Addington Saturday

One of the biggest racedays on the New Zealand racing calendar is New Zealand Trotting Cup Day and the 2020 edition comes around on Tuesday, with thirteen races, the first getting underway at 9.55am Sydney time. Down below is a preview for the meeting. Race One: Think $3.80 is a fair enough price for Humble […]

Harness racing selections: Addington Saturday

One of the biggest racedays on the New Zealand racing calendar is New Zealand Trotting Cup Day and the 2020 edition comes around on Tuesday, with thirteen races, the first getting underway at 9.55am Sydney time.

Down below is a preview for the meeting.

Race One: Think $3.80 is a fair enough price for Humble Ladd. He’s been racing really well at the moment and did a super job with the 40m handicap at Forbury Park last time out when a narrow second. Only has a 10m handicap this time around and I think is clearly the one to beat in the opener. Happy to be on at $3.8.

Suggested Bet: Humble Ladd to win

Race Two: Castelo De Vide is short enough but looks the winner. Hasn’t placed in two career outings, but does look above average and this is a big drop in grade/depth for her. Follows out a market hope so should get the perfect run in transit and although is $1.65, it’s hard to see anything other than a win.

Suggested Bet: Castelo De Vide to win, and a multi anchor if that’s your thing

Race Three: You should get double figures for Jimmy Carter given the horrible barrier draw, but I’m happy to have him as an each way play. He was too good for Humble Ladd at Forbury Parl and I am tipping that form to hold up in the first. Subsequent trial was impressive and he seems pretty reliable as a trotter. Each way for me.

Suggested Bet: Jimmy Carter each way

Race Four: The four year old mares do battle here in the first of the features and this is the start of a potential All Star domination. Amazing Dream is short and draws wide, but she is the best horse in the race by an absolute mile. Stunning win at Alexandra Park last time out, clocking a fast mile rate. Couldn’t back her at the shorts, but should be winning.

Suggested: Bet: Sit back and watch a star

(Photo by Darrian Traynor/Getty Images)

Race Five: Going each way with the pole marker, Fabrizio. Just forget he went around last time out at Kaikoura. That is a track where some handle it and some don’t. He was clearly in the latter. Good record here and drawn the pole, can see Blair Orange hold a forward spot. $7.50 at the time of writing is a touch skinny. Wait and you’ll get double figures.

Suggested Bet: Each way with Fabrizio if $10+

Race Six: Mighty Looee will need luck from the gate, but if he gets things to suit and gets a drag up into the race, his turn of foot gets him home. Just had too much to do last time out but can see him getting three wide cover the last lap and unleashing a powerful finishing burst late. $4+ I’d want before betting up.

Suggested Bet: Mighty Looee if $4+. If not, just watch

Race Seven: There is a couple I want to back here. First one is Majestic Man, who was a dominant winner at Ashburton last time out and draws to lead, proving very hard to get past. The one that is big odds that I could speck 1×3 is the Aussie hope Tough Monarch. He was luckless at Kaikoura and did win this race last year, so at $20+, he is the value despite a tricky draw.

Suggested Bet: Majestic Man to win, 1×3 Tough Monarch

Race Eight: The barrier draw does set it up perfectly for It’s All About Faith. He was game in defeat last time out at Ashburton behind American Dealer, but draws gate one here, so expect him to hold up from there and prove hard to run down. $2.40 is short enough, so I think wait and you’ll get much better come post time.

Suggested Bet: It’s All About Faith to win

Race Nine: Something very small each way via Doc Holliday. Former Northerner who made his Southern debut at Ashburton and I thought was good from a tricky draw when a close up fifth. Draws the pole and has a master in David Butcher to steer. Think at worst, he’ll be three pegs, and at nearly $20, can have something small on him each way.

Suggested Bet: Doc Holliday each way

Race Ten: Alterior Motif is being underrated here I feel. It’s not a strong race and he is 2/2 to start his career, albeit in weaker races at Cambridge, but he has shown versatility, whether it be leading or coming from behind. Reckon David Butcher can come out with purpose from the barrier, find the front and prove hard to run down.

Suggested Bet: Alterior Motif to win

Race Eleven: Last race I’ll look is the big one, the New Zealand Trotting Cup. I think each way, Thefixer will give you a great run for your money. He is near faultless from the standing start, so think he can find the front early and then Bob Butt can decide who he hands up to and get the perfect drag up.

Was very good at Ashburton and I think only runs well in looking to win his second Cup.

Suggested Bet: Thefixer each way

Source : The Roar Horse Racing More   

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Spring racing selections: Rosehill and Flemington tips

Well, what a week. Congrats to those who found Twilight Payment. It was an excellent win and potentially a new model (lead at even rate) for future raiders? Today marks the carnival finale. It looks like a good day at Flemington. Class with prevail somewhat. The Rosehill meeting has been decimated by scratchings, leaving us […]

Spring racing selections: Rosehill and Flemington tips

Well, what a week. Congrats to those who found Twilight Payment. It was an excellent win and potentially a new model (lead at even rate) for future raiders?

Today marks the carnival finale. It looks like a good day at Flemington. Class with prevail somewhat. The Rosehill meeting has been decimated by scratchings, leaving us working through what’s left to find some winnners.

I’ll do my best. I’m using 22 units today across both meetings – a new record. Most of my advantage over the house is on the line.

Dixie’s 2020 tally
Units bet: 443
Units won: 472.10
Stats are based on one unit being equal to a $1 win bet New South Wales dividends. See the comments for any changes based on scratchings or track condition.

Sydney racing selections

Race 1 – 6 Miyake (two units)
This horse was scratched when he rated on top last time. He’s in well and should like 2400 metres.

Race 2
No bet in the Highway.

Race 3 – 2 Dancing Gidget (one unit)
This horse is another Chris Waller runner well placed with the apprentice claim (a theme today). This horse has positive stats at the track and the distance and will handle conditions.

Race 4 – 15 Proven Class (one unit)
Proven Class is really good value off her Highway win. I will have a dabble.

Race 5 – 13 Accountability (one unit)
This one is my speculator of the day. Waller has used an apprentice claim very well and the horse is getting to its right distance range.

Race 6
No bet. I am interested in seeing how Head of State goes.

Race 7 – 5 Irithea (one unit)
This horse has great second-up and 1400 metre stats. This horse prefers dry conditions but is around the mark in a field decimated by scratchings.

Race 8 – 1 Frosty Rocks (two units)
Frosty’s trialled well and is normally very competitive in this type of grade. This horse should get a softish lead.

Race 9 – 8 Misteed (one unit)
This is last-chance time for Misteed. This horse has class on these and the soft surface is good. The quick back-up is always a tick.

Melbourne racing selections

Race 1 – 10 Kissinger (two units)
This horse is a nice stayer who pumped them in the country last time, drops weight into this and should go well at 2000 metres.

Race 2
I am leaving this race alone with limited exposed form.

Race 3 – 8 Morvada (one unit)
This is a tricky race. Morvada is always around the mark and the good track (all seven wins are on firm) puts him in the mix.

Race 4 – 7 Power Scheme (one unit)
This race is a toss-up with Right You Are. I am taking Power Scheme with runs under his belt this prep and at the better price.

Race 5 – 2 Pondus (four units)
I’ve made Pondus my best of the day. He was great in his first Australian run. I’m tipping that he has a bit on the rest of these.

Race 6 – 2 Nature Strip (one unit)
The straight six can help Nature Strip find his best again. His Sydney stuff was disappointing but he’s a good price here. If Libertini turns up, look out. Bivouac is a huge threat. Hey Doc? Great go.

Race 7 – 13 Chaillot (two units)
Chaillot was great in stronger class last week, looks right for the extra trip here and could be very good.

Race 8 – 8 Melody Belle (one unit)
This is another very good race. Melody Belle didn’t fire in Sydney but has been great thereafter in NZ. She is a top-liner.

Race 9 – Llessur (one unit)
This is a spicy way to end the carnival. Llessur has two country wins this prep, is running well and has drawn nicely on the outside fence.

It is a big day. Good luck all. Keep me posted on your thoughts in the big ones. I hope the carnival’s been a winner for you.

Source : The Roar Horse Racing More   

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