Harness racing selections: Thursday, May 6

Two meetings to look at on Thursday, with my focus being at Penrith and Redcliffe. Penrith Best bet: Race 2, Number 1, Enemy Lines This seven-year-old is unbeaten since arriving from Western Australia and he can win again. Ran two weeks ago here where he was a short-priced elect. Found the front comfortably and from […]

Harness racing selections: Thursday, May 6

Two meetings to look at on Thursday, with my focus being at Penrith and Redcliffe.

Penrith

Best bet: Race 2, Number 1, Enemy Lines
This seven-year-old is unbeaten since arriving from Western Australia and he can win again. Ran two weeks ago here where he was a short-priced elect. Found the front comfortably and from there, it was a painless watch. Drawn the pole, should lead once again and prove hard to run down once again.

Next best: Race 6, Number 1, Shes All Star
Pretty keen on this mare. She was enormous in defeat last week, doing a power of work from the wide gate to land on speed and that early burn just told late, but she fought on quite well. Drawn the pole, she has the gate speed to hold the front and with an in form Chris Geary to steer, she’s the one to beat.

Value: Race 3 Number 1, Hot Wire
I doubt she wins, but she’s a good place bet at a price. Thought she was good in defeat last time out after being quite plain the start prior. Drawn the pole, she can land leaders back and from there, should receive every chance. She’s worth a speck as a place bet.

Redcliffe

Best bet: Race 1, Number 5, Chamonix
Short but sweet. Talented three-year-old that has the Grant Dixon polish and potentially could be eyeing off some Winter Carnival riches. Last two starts, both wins, have come at Albion Park, and he has been dominant in getting the job done. Might have to work a bit in the run, but he has these covered re: class.

Next best: Race 2, Number 9, Slide To Unlock
Grant Dixon can make it an early double via this three-year-old filly. Debuted here last week where she did work from the gate to find a nice spot near the speed and battled on quite strongly. Has a good trailing draw to use this time around and with the run under the belt, she’ll take beating.

Value: Race 4, Number 1, Kid Calvert
I’m keen on this guy running well, hopefully at each way odds. Apologies if you were on him last week. He looked to be in a perfect spot behind the leader until he ended up getting dragged back by a tiring leader and it was just a nightmare. If he gets the rub of the green, he’ll only run well.

Source : The Roar Horse Racing More   

What's Your Reaction?

like
0
dislike
0
love
0
funny
0
angry
0
sad
0
wow
0

Next Article

Who does recent history suggest will win the South Australian Derby?

History can be a strong indicator towards feature race winners. Of course, there are also those that write their own story. This is an assessment of the six elements most common to the winners from the past ten years of South Australian Derbies. 1. Top-four finish at the start prior Nine out of ten finished […]

Who does recent history suggest will win the South Australian Derby?

History can be a strong indicator towards feature race winners. Of course, there are also those that write their own story.

This is an assessment of the six elements most common to the winners from the past ten years of South Australian Derbies.

1. Top-four finish at the start prior
Nine out of ten finished fourth or better in their lead-up run. Understandably a solid performance holds them in good stead for the staying test, which would be a strong indicator for any race.

2. Eight have won at some point during their preparation
Winning form is good form – it is no surprise that the clear majority of Derby victors have shown the ability to get the job done along the way. Escado (2013) and Shadows In The Sun (2011) were the only two that bucked this trend.

3. Racing deep into a prep
Eight out of the past ten winners have been at their fifth start of the preparation, or deeper. To be rock-hard fit has proven to be a significant advantage, as the three-year-olds get out to this distance often for the first time. Delicacy (2015) and Leicester (2018) were the deepest into their preparations, at start number eight of their campaign when they ran. Russian Camelot (2020) is one of two who defied this factor, winning at his third start. Fair to say he was one out of the bag – there are not too many South Australian Derby winners who have gone on to perform strongly at the top level like he did, at least in recent times.

4. Staying closer to home
Seven had their entire preparation in either Victoria and/or South Australia. Perhaps too much long travel can be taxing on these younger horses, hence those that have been closer to the home of the Derby have often performed best on the day.

5. All were in their second, third or fourth preparations
Perhaps it comes around too soon for those trying to win it in their first, or perhaps it is that spending time in the paddock can help with a horse’s mental and physical maturity.

6. Barriers draws have been relatively evenly spread
Winners have ranged from barrier 1 (twice) to barrier 11 (twice), with four other numbers represented in between. No winner has come from outside barrier 11, however. The majority of fields were made up of 16 horses. As is often the case, drawing wide (in this case 12 or further out) has been a clear negative indicator. Personal is one of those unlucky runners this year; she has drawn the outside stall for the 2500 m assignment.

Sports opinion delivered daily 

   

Solely based on these historical factors from the past ten years, Royal Mile gets the nod. He is currently paying $10 with Playup and is the only horse that ticks all six pieces of the above criteria.

The Lee Creek-trained gelding has come through the Chairman’s Stakes, which has been the most common producer of SA derby winners with four from the last ten years.

It could be argued that an apprentice jockey does not read well as far as history is concerned, however it is a hard stat to judge accurately given the low percentage of apprentice riders given the opportunity in the race over the years. Jacob Opperman has of course been doing a fantastic job on this galloper – he has ridden him every start, including his five wins to date.

Will history repeat itself? Or is the current form of some others too hard to go past?

Source : The Roar Horse Racing More   

This site uses cookies. By continuing to browse the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies.