Racing selections: Sydney and Melbourne tips for Saturday, March 6
Good weather and great racing have me looking forward to what looks like a top Guineas Day at Randwick, which will surely be matched by Super Saturday down south at Flemington. We’re on a bit of a roll now. A double-figure priced winner in the last at HQ last week got us nicely ahead for […]
Good weather and great racing have me looking forward to what looks like a top Guineas Day at Randwick, which will surely be matched by Super Saturday down south at Flemington.
We’re on a bit of a roll now. A double-figure priced winner in the last at HQ last week got us nicely ahead for the day.
Saturday looks tricky, however there is a bit of value around so hopefully the stars align again and we can have a free hit at Sha Tin to end the weekend.
2020-21 season (since 1 August)
Outlay: 376 units
Return: 479.6 units
Stats are based on one unit being equal to a $1 win bet, New South Wales dividends. See the comments for any changes based on scratchings or track condition.
Race 1 – 5 Tommy Gold (one unit)
I am not going to get too silly to start, but I do have Tommy Gold as big overs at his current mark of around 70-1. He’s fit with two runs back on possibly unsuitable wet ground. He should go forward from the good draw and gets weight off the big three.
Race 2 – 1 Profiteer (one unit)
From very wide to very short, with two-year-olds around this time it’s about finding the best horse in the race, and until proven otherwise, that’s Profiteer. Stay Inside looks good, I’m a fan of Home Affairs, and there’s an un-raced million-dollar colt down the bottom named Solar Winds that isn’t there for a holiday.
Race 3 – 5 Pretty Woman (one unit)
Same theory with the fillies. Pretty Woman is pretty sharp and should test this lot. Yes, her wins are only Canberra wins but she’s been flying, she has a heap of speed and has been running through the line. I’ve had a nibble on her for the Slipper too, if you fancy getting well ahead of yourself. There is not much exposed form. Maybe Vianello is the main threat, or Gstaad off a good trial.
Race 4 – 7 Mount Popa (three units)
I’m going to step away from my cash cow Sacramento and load up on Mount Popa here. This is no knock on the favourite, I just have Popa as better suited weight wise with Sacramento’s extra two-kilo lug. Two thousand metres second up is proven. The only risk I saw was the firm surface, but he has a French win on a good track for whatever that’s worth.
Race 5 – 8 Written Beauty (one unit)
I can’t have Nature Strip at the tomato sauce odds. Written Beauty seems the threat. She’s run time over 1100 metres before and the win over Spaceboy was good. This horse should stalk the speed and have last crack if good enough. Bella Vella interests me with her superb record at the distance (eight from 17), but she didn’t crack 58 seconds last prep, which won’t be enough here.
Race 6 – 1 Positive Peace (one unit)
I am having a nibble on Positive Peace in the mares sprint. Emanate is a deserved favourite, but this mare has stats everywhere that have me thinking she’ll run well. She has a win at the track, is two from six at 1200 metres, loves it dry and is three from four second-up after a break. Emanate, Vulpine and Jen Rules will be discussed when I’m quaddie-building.
Race 7 -1 Aegon (two units)
I needed Aegon to prove he was up to it last time, and he more than did that. The tag of best carnival three-year-old is his for now. He could be anything, and just over even money may be his best price for a while. North Pacific shapes as a danger, while Peltzer has five goes for five wins at HQ.
Race 8 – 8 Savatiano (one unit)
Bivouac was just okay fresh, which has led me into Camp Savatiano. His fresh win was great, the dry track only adds to his appeal, and he’ll eat up the unusual 1300-metre trip. Never drop your guard on Dreamforce – he’s streaky, but can do amazing things – and Bivouac is absolute class.
Race 9 – 12 Nimalee (two units)
I am gutted Scarlet Dream chose Melbourne over this race. I am left with the short way home and Nimalee. I backed her fresh when she won, she shapes as being better on a dry track and the mile should suit as well. It’s a big field with a lot of different form lines. I had Polly Grey (suspect if not wet), On The White Turf and Archanna as the best of the rest.
After last week’s success in the southern capital, and my lack of discipline when a big handicap comes around, I’ve also had a look at the big Flemington card.
Race 6 – 15 Sirius Suspect (one unit)
Sirius Suspect will lead the outside group and give a sight. He’s got great Flemington, 1200 metre and dry track stats, and he should be fit enough for a right go first up. They might struggle to pick him up. Inside gates will be a negative. I have Bold Star at $71, Swat’s That, Flit and Brooklyn Hustle as chances based on that.
Race 7 – 5 Scarlet Dream (one unit)
This horse gets the dry track she wanted and is well suited against her own sex.
Race 8 – 4 Homesman (one unit)
I might need that big Melbourne southerly to help me in this one. Homesman should get another comfortable lead. I like him at the trip. Fifty Stars is a deserved favourite. Paradee gets her chance at the top level and always have Harlem in your quaddie.
Race 9 – 1 Personal (two units)
Personal is one of my faves. I do maybe have a thing for the Coolmore purebreds. She’ll want further, but she seems beautifully placed here with set weight conditions and should run strongly.
Good luck everyone. I’ve gone for a bigger than usual 18 units with everything happening. Here’s hoping we all end on the right side.