Spring racing selections: Randwick and Caulfield tips for Saturday, 10 October

The whips keep cracking this week. Group 1 racing is in Sydney and Melbourne. A trip for three-year-olds is the feature at Randwick and the Toorak Handicap and Caulfield Guineas are shining down south. As you’d expect at this time of year, it’s a tricky little day with guns taking on up-and-comers. A lot of […]

Spring racing selections: Randwick and Caulfield tips for Saturday, 10 October

The whips keep cracking this week. Group 1 racing is in Sydney and Melbourne. A trip for three-year-olds is the feature at Randwick and the Toorak Handicap and Caulfield Guineas are shining down south.

As you’d expect at this time of year, it’s a tricky little day with guns taking on up-and-comers. A lot of races rated pretty tightly so it might be a good day for some handsomely priced exotics. I mean quinellas. It is carnival time so I will use 16 units.

Best up here: Randwick Race 3, 9 Criaderis
Best down there: Caulfield Race 10, 6 Mahamedeis
Weekly speculator: Randwick Race 7, 11 Socrates
Dixie’s daily double (two units): Sydney Race 3, 9; Melbourne Race 2, 3 – I am hoping for about $4.50

Dixie’s 2020 tally
Units bet: 377
Units won: 428.70
Stats are based on one unit being equal to a $1 win bet New South Wales dividends. See the comments for any changes based on scratchings or track condition.

Sydney selections

Race 3 – 9 Criaderis (units in double, see above)
The writing is on the wall here. I am very keen on Criaderis. This horse is likely to settle back but should be closer due to the small field. This horse is flying. I have a soft spot for Zakat. Oakfield Missile is nice odds and good fresh. There’s an unseen French horse, but the favourite is going places and I’m jumping on board.

Race 4 – 12 Quintessa (two units)
Quintessa is getting out towards her best distance range. This horse was good behind Badoosh, will be fitter now and meets him 4.5 kilos better here. She’s Ideel is in well too when compared with that last clash. She’s a perennial favourite (fifth, fifth and sixth this prep as fave). Maybe going back to Randwick is the key?

Race 5 – 5 Jet Propulsion (one unit)
I love these Coolmore colts around this time of year. Jet Propulsion is beautifully bred and should control things from in front. Peltzer is next best.

Race 6 – no bet
Alligator Blood is too short, so no bet (although I will wear his socks to the track – look out Twitter).

(PAUL CROCK/AFP/Getty Images)

Race 7 – 11 Socrates (one unit)
The market is probably right with Love Tap and Montefilia. At the price I’ll speculate with Socrates. He went to Kembla for a kill as prep for this, sat three-wide the trip and lapped them, so consider me impressed! Their race time was faster than the open handicap that followed, and the winds that day saw the meeting subsequently abandoned, so more credit to him. I’m in.

Race 8 – 10 Scarlet Dream (one unit)
Gun contest for the ladies. I’ve landed on Scarlet Dream, who had a great fresh run in a strong race against the boys. This is still not her best trip but she has won at the mile and second-up, so tick tick. This horse has quality and is suited by the dry track. Others? Savacool drops back in distance but has class. All Saints’ Eve has drawn a barrier in the Coach and Horses Hotel. Positive Peace and Asiago are right around the mark as well.

Race 9 – 3 Iconic Star (one unit)
I feel blessed! The carnival is hotting up and they still find room for a 1000-metre sprint that allows for Louise Day’s claim. My ears are pricked. The mandatory Day/double-figure price is there too. Iconic Star has won six from 13, will lead with Day’s weight drop, and should be fine with the hard surface. Miss Invincible could go okay at odds as well. Human Nature and Plaquette are in the quaddie for sure.

Melbourne selections

Race 2 – 3 Swats That (units in double, see above)
I am taking Swats That into Criaderis for what I’m hoping is an early money spinner. She looks very, very good and is the one going places.

Race 4 – 7 Lyre (one unit)
One unit and one last chance for Lyre. At her best she puts these away but can find an excuse (can’t we all). Felicia was very impressive last time and is up in weight but will take catching.

Race 5 – 10 Diamond Effort (one unit)
Speaking of Lyre, Diamond Effort beat her fair and square fresh. This horse takes on the boys here but with great Caulfield and 1100-metres records, she should go close. Les Curtis sprayed Dirty Work when interviewed about Classique Legend, and needs to show a bit more to make me a believer.

Race 6 – no bet
Yes, Russian Camelot wins. I may have it in my super yankee, but at $1.60, I’ll save my units.

Race 7 – 4 Personal (one unit)
Ditto race five in Sydney. This time we have a Coolmore filly who shapes perfectly for the mile trip, has very good early two-year form and is a great price. Instant Celebrity goes to top-notch status with a win here. Hungry Heart is a bridesmaid this prep. If she blows them away get on Montefilia.

Race 8 – 6 Crosshaven (one unit)
I am sticking solid with team Hayes for the boys at the mile. Crosshaven has been great, winning four from five in his short career. This horse will go forward but has finished off well recently so the mile should bring the best out of him. There are stars around him with Ole Kirk likely to be chasing hard and Tagaloa coming back from an all-aged Group 1 race.

Race 9 – 11 Sircconi (two units)
I am not dropping Sircconi just yet. I’ve tipped him a couple of times this prep for near misses. Just when I’m ready to jump off they let him in three kilos better than weight-for-age. I’m planning on getting it all back with enough for dessert. It is a great race. Junipal and Buffalo River are both very scary.

Race 10 – 6 Mahamedeis (two units)
I’m leaving my run (very) late with Mahamedeis. His wins in July and August stand up here. He was given a bit of a freshen-up. It’s go time now. I have the kiwi Platinum Invader as a chance if he can find his best, otherwise The Chosen One and obviously Orderofthegarter.

Good luck everyone. There is some great racing across the day. Please hit me up in the comments with what you’re thinking, what you’ve seen or with any questions or advice about the races I’ve left.

Source : The Roar Horse Racing More   

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Spring racing selections: Randwick and Flemington tips for Saturday, 3 October

Hello Epsom Day! This old darling is right up there with my favourite race days of the year, bettered only by the Slipper and Doncaster monsters in autumn. After giving a few pennies back last week, I’m happy to be back at Randwick – the massive fields in the big ones are arduous, but there’s […]

Spring racing selections: Randwick and Flemington tips for Saturday, 3 October

Hello Epsom Day! This old darling is right up there with my favourite race days of the year, bettered only by the Slipper and Doncaster monsters in autumn.

After giving a few pennies back last week, I’m happy to be back at Randwick – the massive fields in the big ones are arduous, but there’s certainly value (if we can find it).

With various ways to play the card (short versus speculative), my run down will be how I’m playing, with a few options for people who fancy spice. The carnival-standard 16 units are in play.

Best up here: Randwick Race 8, 13 Angel of Truth
Best down there: Caulfield Race 7, 12 Finche
Weekly speculator: Caulfield Race 6, 11 Admire Robson

Dixie’s 2020 tally
Units bet: 362
Units won: 414.10
Stats are based on one unit being equal to a $1 win bet New South Wales dividends. See the comments for any changes based on scratchings or track condition.

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Sydney selections

Race 1 – 11 Betcha Flying (one unit)
I am starting off with Betcha Flying. She’s in beautifully here, she meets Discharged five kilos better for a 1.4 length third to him three weeks ago, she’s since run well in midweek grade and is primed here, fitter and over slightly further. That is no knock on Discharged – he’s a winner and is definitely in form, but the extra weight is against him and I’m going around. Testashadow is interesting. He meets the fave with a similar weight drop, but might not quite be at his best. He does have Louise Day on board though, which is a big tick.

No selections in Races 2 and 3 – they are the first starting two-year-olds.

Race 4 – 2 Kolding (one unit)
Kolding was back to his 2019 best, winning the George Main last start. I’m backing him to maintain that form now and at the better price, I will take him over Fierce Impact (a winner last time). Kolding is zero from one at the trip (heavy track in the autumn). I’m taking confidence from the fact that was his autumn grand final and team Waller likes that trip for him. The obvious risk is Fierce Impact, which is a super horse.

Race 5 – 1 Dame Giselle (one unit)
Unlike the other Sydney tips so far, I’m sticking solid in this one with Dame Giselle. I’ve had her for her last two wins (she’s won in spite of my tip!). Maybe Hungry Heart runs a better 1600. Montefilia is a question mark, but I am happy to have my money on the horse that’s done the business so far this prep.

(PAUL CROCK/AFP/Getty Images)

Race 6 – 2 Classique Legend (one unit)
I had the big yarn about my golf partner before Classique Legend won fresh. I (maybe thankfully) haven’t seen him since. I’m going to back up here, probably more on the back of the wraps Les Bridge gave him after that run. If he’s the best horse he’s trained, he’s not only going to frighten Nature Strip, it’ll take beating in the Everest. Whatever beats those two is probably also heading to the big one in a fortnight. I can’t see it though.

Race 7 – 11 Probabeel (one unit)
The fun really starts! What an Epsom. There are chances everywhere. It is a great job by the handicapper. Where do you look? I’ve tossed and turned over Rock and Yulong Prince, but have ended with Probabeel. She’s been great this prep, is better over longer and gets the big weight drop against some of the guns. She has drawn a barrier in a UNSW lecture theatre (another new reference), but maybe she’s the star? The rest? Riodini? Reloaded? Star of the Seas? The short way home in ratings order: Probabeel, Rock, Star of the Seas, Imaging (car park), Mister Sea Wolf. The spicy way home: Yulong Prince and Reloaded.

Race 8 – 14 Angel of Truth (two units)
I had Angel of Truth a fair way in front of these, mainly with the big weight drop from his run in the Kingston Town, where he battled late after being caught wide early. He covers Zebrowski, who had the run in the same race and didn’t finish off. Carif, however, did finish off nicely and the extra distance and weight drop works. I’m wary. He’s for spicy players. Hush Writer rates well and has that Clark-Waterhouse combo I love. Mugatoo is a gun. He is classy but gives weight to everyone here other than his mate Mustajeer.

Race 9 – 6 Athiri (one unit)
This is another Dixie moneymaker. I’ll finish by showing loyalty for Athiri. She does pick up three kilos for her domination last start. Fingers crossed she’s taken the next step.

Melbourne selections

Race 2 – 8 September Run (one unit)
In a tricky little day, his last-start win was pretty phenomenal and it will take a good one to beat him.

Race 4 – 4 Tofane (two units)
Tofane is a good’un. She might prefer 1400, but is great second-up and was very good fresh. Class.

Race 6 – 11 Admire Robson (one unit)
This horse was backed from $31 into $19 at the time of writing. It seems I’m not alone in thinking this bloke can do the job here at odds. This horse was great first-up behind Creedence, and meets him 4.5 kilos better for that. This horse will be fitter and 2400 is probably his go.

Race 7 – 12 Finche (two units)
This horse had a ripping run first-up. Last year’s Melbourne Cup favourite (1.4 lengths off) meets Vow and Declare on good terms here and is rock solid at 2000. It is a yes from me.

Race 8 – 2 Rubiaski (one unit)
I am forgiving Rubiaski’s blank first-up and taking her on last time in. She just kept winning.

Good luck everyone. It is a massive day. I hope you end up on the right side, particularly spicy players. Send through tips and comments throughout the day. Stay safe, bet wide.

Source : The Roar Horse Racing More   

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