Spring racing selections: Randwick and Flemington tips for Saturday, 3 October

Hello Epsom Day! This old darling is right up there with my favourite race days of the year, bettered only by the Slipper and Doncaster monsters in autumn. After giving a few pennies back last week, I’m happy to be back at Randwick – the massive fields in the big ones are arduous, but there’s […]

Spring racing selections: Randwick and Flemington tips for Saturday, 3 October

Hello Epsom Day! This old darling is right up there with my favourite race days of the year, bettered only by the Slipper and Doncaster monsters in autumn.

After giving a few pennies back last week, I’m happy to be back at Randwick – the massive fields in the big ones are arduous, but there’s certainly value (if we can find it).

With various ways to play the card (short versus speculative), my run down will be how I’m playing, with a few options for people who fancy spice. The carnival-standard 16 units are in play.

Best up here: Randwick Race 8, 13 Angel of Truth
Best down there: Caulfield Race 7, 12 Finche
Weekly speculator: Caulfield Race 6, 11 Admire Robson

Dixie’s 2020 tally
Units bet: 362
Units won: 414.10
Stats are based on one unit being equal to a $1 win bet New South Wales dividends. See the comments for any changes based on scratchings or track condition.

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Sydney selections

Race 1 – 11 Betcha Flying (one unit)
I am starting off with Betcha Flying. She’s in beautifully here, she meets Discharged five kilos better for a 1.4 length third to him three weeks ago, she’s since run well in midweek grade and is primed here, fitter and over slightly further. That is no knock on Discharged – he’s a winner and is definitely in form, but the extra weight is against him and I’m going around. Testashadow is interesting. He meets the fave with a similar weight drop, but might not quite be at his best. He does have Louise Day on board though, which is a big tick.

No selections in Races 2 and 3 – they are the first starting two-year-olds.

Race 4 – 2 Kolding (one unit)
Kolding was back to his 2019 best, winning the George Main last start. I’m backing him to maintain that form now and at the better price, I will take him over Fierce Impact (a winner last time). Kolding is zero from one at the trip (heavy track in the autumn). I’m taking confidence from the fact that was his autumn grand final and team Waller likes that trip for him. The obvious risk is Fierce Impact, which is a super horse.

Race 5 – 1 Dame Giselle (one unit)
Unlike the other Sydney tips so far, I’m sticking solid in this one with Dame Giselle. I’ve had her for her last two wins (she’s won in spite of my tip!). Maybe Hungry Heart runs a better 1600. Montefilia is a question mark, but I am happy to have my money on the horse that’s done the business so far this prep.

(PAUL CROCK/AFP/Getty Images)

Race 6 – 2 Classique Legend (one unit)
I had the big yarn about my golf partner before Classique Legend won fresh. I (maybe thankfully) haven’t seen him since. I’m going to back up here, probably more on the back of the wraps Les Bridge gave him after that run. If he’s the best horse he’s trained, he’s not only going to frighten Nature Strip, it’ll take beating in the Everest. Whatever beats those two is probably also heading to the big one in a fortnight. I can’t see it though.

Race 7 – 11 Probabeel (one unit)
The fun really starts! What an Epsom. There are chances everywhere. It is a great job by the handicapper. Where do you look? I’ve tossed and turned over Rock and Yulong Prince, but have ended with Probabeel. She’s been great this prep, is better over longer and gets the big weight drop against some of the guns. She has drawn a barrier in a UNSW lecture theatre (another new reference), but maybe she’s the star? The rest? Riodini? Reloaded? Star of the Seas? The short way home in ratings order: Probabeel, Rock, Star of the Seas, Imaging (car park), Mister Sea Wolf. The spicy way home: Yulong Prince and Reloaded.

Race 8 – 14 Angel of Truth (two units)
I had Angel of Truth a fair way in front of these, mainly with the big weight drop from his run in the Kingston Town, where he battled late after being caught wide early. He covers Zebrowski, who had the run in the same race and didn’t finish off. Carif, however, did finish off nicely and the extra distance and weight drop works. I’m wary. He’s for spicy players. Hush Writer rates well and has that Clark-Waterhouse combo I love. Mugatoo is a gun. He is classy but gives weight to everyone here other than his mate Mustajeer.

Race 9 – 6 Athiri (one unit)
This is another Dixie moneymaker. I’ll finish by showing loyalty for Athiri. She does pick up three kilos for her domination last start. Fingers crossed she’s taken the next step.

Melbourne selections

Race 2 – 8 September Run (one unit)
In a tricky little day, his last-start win was pretty phenomenal and it will take a good one to beat him.

Race 4 – 4 Tofane (two units)
Tofane is a good’un. She might prefer 1400, but is great second-up and was very good fresh. Class.

Race 6 – 11 Admire Robson (one unit)
This horse was backed from $31 into $19 at the time of writing. It seems I’m not alone in thinking this bloke can do the job here at odds. This horse was great first-up behind Creedence, and meets him 4.5 kilos better for that. This horse will be fitter and 2400 is probably his go.

Race 7 – 12 Finche (two units)
This horse had a ripping run first-up. Last year’s Melbourne Cup favourite (1.4 lengths off) meets Vow and Declare on good terms here and is rock solid at 2000. It is a yes from me.

Race 8 – 2 Rubiaski (one unit)
I am forgiving Rubiaski’s blank first-up and taking her on last time in. She just kept winning.

Good luck everyone. It is a massive day. I hope you end up on the right side, particularly spicy players. Send through tips and comments throughout the day. Stay safe, bet wide.

Source : The Roar Horse Racing More   

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Choosing a stallion this spring

We are now well into that time of the year when breeders, both hobby and professional, are deciding or have decided which stallions should enjoy the favour of their blue-blood broodmares this spring. As a man who has always been significantly constrained in my breeding budget, I enjoy scouring the market for perceived value for […]

Choosing a stallion this spring

We are now well into that time of the year when breeders, both hobby and professional, are deciding or have decided which stallions should enjoy the favour of their blue-blood broodmares this spring.

As a man who has always been significantly constrained in my breeding budget, I enjoy scouring the market for perceived value for the proven winner whose talents are not reasonably recognised by the market or the cheap unproven stallion that may have the capacity to way exceed expectations.

As someone who once chose Black Hawk over the novice Written Tycoon for my mare, like everyone, I don’t always get it right!

There are two things that strike me when I scan the wide array of stallion options available in Australia and New Zealand this year.

The first is that the Hunter Valley is clearly on a different planet to the rest of Australasia. Put a bridle and saddle on me and float me to Scone and I reckon I could attract $10,000 a service.

The only stallion in Australasia advertised at above $50,000 that is not based in the Hunter Valley is the champion Kiwi, Savabeel.

The second seems to be that frequently it seems the market doesn’t put great value on actual results. It seems the thrill of the unknown in unproven first and second season sires often trumps proven performance. Maybe that’s fine if you are taking a punt on a $10,000 stallion, but for most of these big-ticket novices, the only way will be down once their progeny hit the racetrack.

The only way is down too for most of the $10,000 stallions, but if you get it wrong then it’s cost you a lot less to stuff up, and every now and then one of these cheap stallions comes along and shoots the lights out – think I Am Invincible, Encosta De Lago or Written Tycoon, who we could have got for $5000, for example.

As they say in the ads, compare the pair. Trapeze Artist – multiple Group 1-winning sprinter admittedly but with his first foals just starting to hit the ground – is advertised at $77,000 a service. Maybe he will be the next Danehill, maybe his progeny will all be battling it out at Mudgee. It remains to be seen.

Meanwhile, in NZ, for a quarter of that you could have booked your future broodmare of the year in to Ocean Park, who is building an outstanding record of delivering actual Group 1 performers, particularly in Australia, such as Star Of The Seas, Kolding and Tofane, who all go around tomorrow.

Head out of the Hunter and things are very different.

WA has produced an extraordinary array of top-class horses over the past 25 years on seemingly the smell of an oily rag. Even now the top advertised stallion price in the state is $13,200 for up-and-comer Playing God, with only one other stallion advertised at over $7000.

Awesome Rock – a Group 1-winning son of Fastnet Rock – ticks plenty of boxes at $5500 for those wanting to try something new, while two sons of Encosta De Lago in My Admiration and Maschino are getting plenty of city winners from relatively limited opportunities.

In South Australia and Tasmania the options are limited – only one stallion over $5500 – but proven winners like Barbados ($4400), Ambidexter ($4400) and Toorak Toff – the last of the Star Kingdom line at $3850 – strike me as great value for the small breeder.

Queensland has just two stallions over $16,500 – the prolific winner producers Spirit of Boom and Better Than Ready, who have both done it the hard way. Rothesay – sire of the outstanding Rothfire – has a price tag of just $4950.

Here in Victoria we have a wide choice ranging from the price of a cup of coffee up to Brazen Beau at just under $50,000. And sometimes choices are made for the strangest of reasons.

We once sent a mare to Happy Giggle after the guy managing our mare’s agistment rang us and said your mare is ready to go. He told us the next day was Cup Day and that he was going to the Cup. “Unless you want to wait another month, she needs to go now and I’m not driving her more than an hour away for her service.”

Happy Giggle turned out to be the only option and within 30 minutes she was booked in. Impressively, the resultant foal won four races and raced in black-type company! It was no champ but gave us a lot of fun. It just goes to show you.

Tomorrow’s racing
There’s a couple of good things tomorrow that I can’t resist mentioning. At Eagle Farm in Race 8, Desert Lord looks lengths better than his rivals. At Flemington, Madam Rouge finally draws a barrier and gets a firm track in Race 8. Santa Ana Lane is thrown in at the handicaps in Race 4, and I have to stick with Probabeel in the Epsom at Randwick. She’s a gun!

Source : The Roar Horse Racing More   

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