Sydney racing selections: Randwick tips for Saturday, September 18

Breathe in that carnival air peeps, a massive day of A1 quality awaits at both Randwick and Caulfield, headed by the George Main up here and Rupert Clarke down there. I’ve renamed George Main Stakes day ‘Dixie’s super yankee Saturday’ after the day of all days last year. I’ll be watching closely and going hard […]

Sydney racing selections: Randwick tips for Saturday, September 18

Breathe in that carnival air peeps, a massive day of A1 quality awaits at both Randwick and Caulfield, headed by the George Main up here and Rupert Clarke down there.

I’ve renamed George Main Stakes day ‘Dixie’s super yankee Saturday’ after the day of all days last year. I’ll be watching closely and going hard to back that up, likely from whatever picnic I’ve been wedged into.

Dixie’s 2021-22 season tally (from August 1)
Outlay: 54 units
Return: 32.40 units
Stats are based on one unit being equal to a $1 win bet, New South Wales dividends. See the comments for any changes based on scratchings or track condition.

Sydney racing selections

Race 1 – 13 Satin Ruby (one unit)
Current price: $61
I am having a throw at the stumps on 13. Satin Ruby. She missed the kick fresh at Scone (no trials) and ran on well enough – 33.5 last 600 – to suggest she can do something here. This horse stays at 1000 metres. Hopefully this ex-Anthony Cummings horse can start with them and take advantage of Ellen Hennessy’s weight claim. The fave 11. Nadaraja bolted in at the same Scone meeting last time. I’m gutted it looks like 7. Emeriz is scratched to run on Monday. No jockey notified as of Friday morning isn’t a good sign. He was right in it at massive odds too. 2. Leo bobs up every now and then.

Race 2 – 8 Kordia (one unit)
Current odds: $4.20
The scratching of 2. Atishu opens this race right up. I’m going with the favourite 8. Kordia. He beat the spruiked Yiyi last time giving him weight. If he backs that up he goes close. 5. Kiss The Bride rates next best. This horse was a length off Kordia last time and will like the extra trip. 7. Cisco Bay is generally in the money in this sort of grade, particularly if the track is soft.

Race 3 – 2 Foxborough (one unit)
Current price: $11
2. Foxborough was good in Midway grade two starts ago. She gets Tom Sherry’s apprentice claim here and is generally around the mark at the Randwick mile. 1. Above and Beyond and 6. Tampering were next best, and I’m interested in 9. Big Surprise’s trip to town. He’s running well but may set up a great tempo with Tampering that suits my girl.

Race 4 – 16 Hot Spring Gold (two units)
Current odds: $11
I have 16. Hot Spring Gold as a great bet at double-figure odds. He won arrogantly two starts ago before a freshen and a solid third back to 1300 metres a fortnight back. He gives most of them a good start but will be motoring home. 10. Suave is a worry for me. James McDonald jumps on first up for a year at 1400 metres. Is there something I don’t know? 9. Super Effort beat Hot Spring Gold last time. He’s in a great form but disadvantaged against HSG at the weights.

Race 5 – 12 Harmony Rose (one unit)
Current odds: $3.80
This is a good little race here that seems to be between the three favourites. I’ll be with 12. Harmony Rose if the track stays in the slow range (two from two). She’s also two from two at 1400 metres and two from two first up. It’s still tough to separate her from 11. Atishu, who gave a weak excuse last time but was still excellent, and was amazing on Australian debut. Stats are ticked everywhere too. 5. Private Eye? Way too far back last week. Joe Pride backs him up and throws blinkers on, yes and yes. He’ll be coming at them, but will have to catch my girl.

Race 6 – 1 Four Moves Ahead (one unit)
Current odds: $4.20
At set weights for the fillies, I’m going to stick with the top-end two-year-olds one last time, with 1. Four Moves Ahead top of the list. If she fails here I’m off. 3. She’s All Class and 4. Mallory look like the most likely challengers out of a pretty ordinary crop. If you’ve seen something I haven’t, let me know.

Race 7 – 2 Think It Over (one unit)
Current odds: $4.60
Take 7. Verry Elleegant as the very short way home. I’ll go with 2. Think It Over at slightly better odds. He’s now won two Randwick WFA Group 1s, so is in the same conversation as the great mare and even 1. Kolding. He’s a serious racehorse, and despite being in a sticky spot was only .4 of a length from VE first-up in the Winx. 3. Cascadian can bob up. 5. Riodini was great last time and 9. Hungry Heart is a potential superstar. This is a big contest. I am looking forward to it.

Race 8 – 4 Masked Crusader (one unit)
Current odds: $5
If I was excited about the George Ryder, I’m jumping out of trees to see this – what a race! There are Everest contenders galore. Where to look? I’ve landed with 4. Masked Crusader. He was special fresh coming from last at the Valley. I said he’ll have to be Chautauqua to win from there, and by the time I’d finished he’d rounded them up. It was something. This is a step up though.

1. Nature Strip is always the real deal and can stamp himself as Everest fave here with a win. 2. Eduardo and 3. Gytrash are both superstars who have lowered Nature Strips colours before. 5. Rothfire? The fastest trial ever seen in the history of the world or something? That would be some recovery considering his injury. 7. Lost and Running can run time as well and is a genuine contender.

There’s so many bulls here with speed, letting them bash each other might be the way to go. Who knows? Enjoy.

Race 9 – 18 Zeyrek (one unit)
Current odds: $21
Dashing Willoughby running at Newcastle means 18. Zeyrek will start. He’s been backed from 50/1 into 20s, and I’m hopping on. This horse was great fresh in the worst part of the track after the rain came, poking his head up before others with a fitness edge came wide. He’ll have come to hand since, should get a nice spot (Jay Ford on) from barrier one and be in the finish. Two thousand metres is perfect right now. At around $12 7. Best Of Days is overs. A head off an Australian Cup win is good for this. 14. She’s Ideel was a beast first up. She was slightly disappointing next time and I’m going to risk her. That or her Tancred run in the autumn win here.

Race 10 – 5 Lord Olympus (one unit)
They don’t call it the lucky last for nothing. Try sorting these out, boy oh boy. I’m leaning towards 5. Lord Olympus, who should be running on well considering the likely speed battle up front. He was always running in black type races as a junior so benchmark level suits. 12. Equation is a ripper. He went through his grades beautifully last prep. Six months into this and no trial? I’ll risk thinking he’s headed for something bigger at 1400 or a mile. 7. Exoboom rates well and had a hard trial but 1100 metres might be too short. 18. Hulk will win a race like this, probably not from the horrible draw though.

Horse racing generic 1

Melbourne racing selections

Race 6 – 3 Annavisto (two units)
Current odds: $2.10
3. Annavisto has had the form franked since finishing second to Turaath. She now gets to her pet 1400-metre trip and should go close.

Race 7 – 7 Chapada (one unit)
Current odds: $23
7. Chapada’s Autumn third when second up in the Australian Cup put him in the mix here. He should be in the right spot to challenge when it gets serious.

Race 8 – 7 Sierra Sue (one unit)
Current odds: $13
I am sticking with 7. Sierra Sue at a nice price. She was unlucky at the Valley after a quality win and is beautifully weighted here. 16. Poland is a worry with no weight on his back. 2. Probabeel is all class and one of my favourites. She goes to the top of the class if she can win giving this lot weight. This is a great race.

Good luck all and stay safe. What a day!

Source : The Roar Horse Racing More   

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George Main Stakes day: Group 1 preview and tips

It’s George Main Stakes day at Randwick on Saturday. It’s rare that the lone Group 1 race on a card isn’t the most anticipated race of the day, but that honour belongs to the Shorts this week. Such is the power of the Everest. George Main Stakes  Verry Elleegant is the strong favourite here, as […]

George Main Stakes day: Group 1 preview and tips

It’s George Main Stakes day at Randwick on Saturday.

It’s rare that the lone Group 1 race on a card isn’t the most anticipated race of the day, but that honour belongs to the Shorts this week. Such is the power of the Everest.

George Main Stakes 
Verry Elleegant is the strong favourite here, as she often is when lining up. Her last crack at the famous Randwick mile saw her take out the Group 1 Chipping Norton against a similar line-up to what she faces here.

She’s also second up after placing first up at 1400 metres, just as she was then, and the likelihood of juice in the track is even more to her advantage. It all lines up to say she’s the horse to beat again.

A number of horses here finished behind Verry Elleegant in the Winx Stakes, where she was second. The winner Mo’unga was seen in Melbourne last week, no doubt to the disgust of Peter V’landys.

(Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)

Kolding was very plain in the Winx, finishing ninth albeit less than two lengths from the winner. His first-up run was a bit basic too, so he’s at the crossroads again. Any give in the track won’t be to his liking either, if Chris Waller does have him primed to bounce back.

Think It Over was just over half a length from Mo’unga in the Winx, only good enough for sixth, but has since franked that busy finish by taking out the Chelmsford at this course and distance two weeks ago. He was the map horse that day, and his quality got it done. He’ll be there.

Cascadian was also in the finish in the Winx Stakes, but couldn’t catch Think It Over in the Chelmsford. He’s always an eye-catcher but isn’t the sort of horse you’d want your last dollar on, getting back and running on. Others can have him.

Hungry Heart didn’t make a huge impression first up, also in the Winx, but ran well enough to keep an eye on her going forward. She’s another that needs it bone dry to produce her best, so you’d only recommend her at some value on a good track.

Riodini was just nailed by Think It Over in the Chelmsford, and has always appealed as a horse that could sneak away with one of these big races. Rachel King led on him in last time, and may decide to again with no obvious speed in the race. If she rates him well enough and a couple of others are asleep at the wheel, he can win.

Three horses here come through the Tramway, which looks the lesser form, as reflected in the market prices of these runners.

Star of the Seas seems to prefer easier assignments these days. Lion’s Roar needs to show he can make the step up from three-year-old Group 1 winner to open age company. Shout the Bar has more bad days than good, but taking up the lead might be the best way for her to be competitive.

Racing doesn’t always work this way, but this one does look pretty clear-cut.

Selections: 1. Verry Elleegant, 2. Think It Over, 3. Riodini, 4. Cascadian.

Verry Elleegant

(Photo by Mark Evans/Getty Images)

The Shorts 
Oh boy, are we in for a treat here. Six of the seven Everest slot-holders clash, who are six of the first seven favourites in betting for Sydney’s biggest race. The only one not here is last year’s Everest winner Classique Legend, which only adds to the mystique.

Nature Strip holds a firm grip on the market as the world’s best sprinter, and wasn’t he just dripping with absolute quality when he resumed in the Concorde. He never looked to be anything but jogging, but was still able to sprint away from a good field powerfully. What an outstanding horse.

Masked Crusader is the rising star, ready to ask the question once more of the champ. He came of age in the autumn, winning his first Group 1 as well as running second to Nature Strip in the TJ Smith.

He’s now a fully furnished five-year-old, being trained specifically for distances up to 1200 metres. We know he likes to get back and run on, as he did impressively first up at Caulfield, but can he be close enough to run down all of these electric sprinters?

Eduardo and Gytrash are the more experienced hands, having tackled Nature Strip and each other over the last 12 months.

Eduardo is a dual Group 1 winner this calendar year and is 1-1 with Nature Strip in that time. Joe Pride is never short of talking a big game, and he reckons he has this horse going better than he ever has. He was third in the TJ Smith behind Nature Strip and Masked Crusader, so does need to find a few lengths on that.

Gytrash sensationally beat Nature Strip last September in the Concorde, beat him home again when running third in the Everest, and took out the Winners Stakes that spring too. He was a bit underwhelming in the autumn, but can sizzle first up if he’s right.

Jason Collett on Gytrash

(Photo by Jason McCawley/Getty Images for the Australian Turf Club)

Then we get to Lost and Running and Rothfire, the fresh horses on the scene.

Lost and Running, despite being five, has only had seven starts. He’s won six of them, working his way through the grades and effortlessly demolishing most that cross his path. This is an enormous step up, of course, but the fact that he’s shorter odds than horses the calibre of Eduardo and Gytrash tell you that he is a serious contender. Now, he has to prove it.

Rothfire looked like a legitimate world-beater this time last year. He’d spaced his rivals as a two-year-old in the JJ Atkins up in Queensland, and then was one of the most impressive Run to the Rose winners on record. He was unbackable in the Golden Rose but broke down in the straight and hasn’t been seen since.

He’s now recuperated, has trialled beautifully, and is the genuine X-factor in a race that isn’t lacking for it. Who knows what we’re going to see, but it’s truly exciting.

Wild Ruler is smart enough, but won’t test these. If Handle The Truth or Adelong can run top four, it will be the run of their lives.

Hold on to your hat when the starter lets this field go, it’s going to be memorable. And the beauty of it is that we’ll have even better to come in a month’s time when most of this field tries to climb the mountain.

Selections: 1. Nature Strip, 2. Gytrash, 3. Eduardo, 4. Masked Crusader.

Source : The Roar Horse Racing More   

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