The Mounting Yard: Super Saturday at Flemington preview
The best day of the Melbourne Autumn arrives in the form of Super Saturday at headquarters (Flemington) where the time-honoured Newmarket Handicap and Australian Cup will be run and won at the Group 1 level. There are four other Group races on the program with some very promising stayers continuing their preparations in the Kewney […]
The best day of the Melbourne Autumn arrives in the form of Super Saturday at headquarters (Flemington) where the time-honoured Newmarket Handicap and Australian Cup will be run and won at the Group 1 level.
There are four other Group races on the program with some very promising stayers continuing their preparations in the Kewney Stakes. The weather looks perfect, we should be racing on a Good 4 and if you haven’t already booked your tickets, do so now as we can finally see a big crowd on a racetrack again.
Race 1: Thoroughbred Breeders, Group 3, two-year-olds, fillies, 1200 metres
The juveniles kick off the meeting here down the straight and you are braver than me if you want to take $1.80 in the first on Super Saturday in a two-year-old race. I was prepared to have something small on Tempest Charm at a big quote. The Griffiths filly ran into some very smart types in her first preparation in Sneaky Five and Dosh and wasn’t far away from either of them.
She was then tipped out and resumed in the Blue Diamond Prelude when having absolutely no luck behind Arcaded and Scorched Earth. Admittedly she was poor at Sandown, but I am prepared to forgive that. She goes out to 1200m for the first-time which suits and she is a horse that will relish straight track racing.
The favourite in La Rocque looks like the clear main danger. She was very green on debut at Pakenham but still had the race in her keeping from a long way out which points to her being a good horse. We aren’t sure of what she beat there which is the main query.
Flying Evelyn looks like a professional type and is the only other winning chance. She beat a capable field on debut at the Valley and it seemed as though she was already looking for the 1200m, which is what she gets here.
Recommended bet: Something small E/W on #1 Tempest Charm at $16.
Race 2: Super Vobis, three-year-olds, Handicap, 1400 metres
It’s seemingly a race in three here in the second on the program. I put the Price-trained Cumberbatch on top. I thought this gelding was very good last preparation, beating Surooj at Sandown before being a certainty beaten at the Valley behind the likes of Flash Flood and Jay Gatsby. He was tipped out for a spell, trialled up well at Geelong, and then he was very good first-up at Sandown behind a very smart one in Tuvalu.
He drops six kgs on that run, draws perfectly (3), is undefeated second-up and Jamie Kah is also a huge positive. He ticks all the boxes.
Annavisto is the main danger. I had a big opinion of her after her dominant debut win and she just never really went on with it last preparation. She returned in style beating what must be said was a very weak Benchmark 64 field, but it did look like she had a bit more left in the tank. She will go to the front or sit off the leader and prove hard to beat if she can improve any off that run.
Miss Inbetween is the only other winning chance. She was honest last preparation against better horses than she faces here, and she had no luck whatsoever first-up at the Valley at Group level. She will need a good ride from Williams from the gate (9).
Recommended bet: Win bet on #5 Cumberbatch at $4.60.
Race 3: VRC March Stakes, listed race, 1400 metres
An intriguing race awaits the punters here in the third with the Thousand Guineas winner resuming. At the price, I am happy to be on Pretty Brazen. I thought there would be less of a discrepancy regarding her price and Odeum’s. First-up last preparation at Caulfield over 1200m she didn’t have any luck at all behind the likes of Perfect Jewel and Bless Her, before coming to Flemington over the same distance she sees today and beating one of Australia’s best horses in Arcadia Queen.
She was then a length off Behemoth at Group 1 level in the Rupert Clarke before running on strongly in her last two runs of the preparation. She has had two jump-outs leading into this first-up run where she has a terrific record (4:1-2-0) so she should be fit and ready to fire at a track she loves (7:1-3-0).
Odeum is the danger and has been very good in her jumpouts leading into this first-up run. She was terrific in the Thousand Guineas when beating subsequent Oaks winner Personal, before getting nabbed on the line in the Empire Rose. She will most likely lead them up here and could just prove far too good if she has improved over her break.
Holbein is as honest as they come. He battled on well last start behind Morvada, but that race was run to suit, as this one might be as well. Iconoclasm loves Flemington and must be included in the multiples.
Recommended bet: #2 Pretty Brazen E/W at $5.
Race 4: Sires Produce Stakes, Group 2, two-year-olds, 1400 metres
It’s potentially the most interesting race on the program for mine and it will change a few of the futures markets immediately after the race. There wasn’t a lot separating the top few, but I landed on Paulele. I was taken aback by his win on debut at the Valley when settling three deep and without cover in the run and I thought his win at Randwick was very good over 1200m.
He was given a let-up and resumed in a strong edition of the Silver Slipper Stakes when he was seemingly just outsprinted over 1100m. He was doing his best work late and I think from the good barrier (7) and with the rise to 1400m, he can get back in the winners circle against slightly inferior opposition.
Lightsaber is one of the dangers. He was terrific when beating a smart one in Frontman after travelling wide and without cover at Sandown, before backing up there and winning with ease over this distance by 2.25L. He was very strong through the line there and from the good barrier (3) you would think he will try and run them into the ground again.
Kooled flashed home late over 1200m to finish half a length off the talented Bacchanalia who is fancied in the Black Opal on Sunday. He is bred to get over further and the rise to 1400m suits.
Cheerful Legend is the other who seems to have matured. He was very good at the Valley last start and maps well.
Recommended bet: Win bet on #2 Paulele at $4.50
Race 5: Incognitus Stakes, listed race, three-year-olds, 1100 metres
A few very talented three-year-olds try and get some black type in the fifth on the program. I am happy to be with Marboosha. The Snowden Filly hasn’t run a bad race to date from five starts and one of those was a win against Forbidden Love (now a Group 1 winner). She was fantastic in her only try down the straight, running a long neck off Written Beauty ($6.50 in the Challenge on Saturday) while beating home Bella Nipotina with ease, who she faces here.
She will fly along on her own towards the middle of the track and prove hard to beat. O
xley Road is still somewhat of an unknown quantity. The Moody colt was very good on debut down the straight on a Heavy track, before beating some Group-type horses at Caulfield last start. This is his strongest test to date, but he can improve and prove very hard to run down.
Bella Nipotina should be ready to peak third-up. She was beaten by a $50 pop last start after looking all over the winner at the 300m mark. She loves the Flemington straight and if the fitness of a few others begin to give out, she will be the one ready to take advantage.
Recommended bet: Win bet on #5 Marboosha at $4.40.
Race 6: Newmarket Handicap, Group 1, maidens ineligible, 1200 metres
The first of the Group 1s arrives on Super Saturday and it is the Newmarket Handicap down the straight. It’s a good horses race this and that’s why September Run should be winning. The Waller filly was completely dominant when beating the likes of Minhaaj on her way to a dominant Coolmore Classic victory over the likes of Swats That and Wild Ruler.
She was spelt after that victory and returned in the Lightning where she absolutely flashed home to finish half a length off a fully firing Nature Strip. She gave Swats that windburn in the straight there and that horse is the second elect in this market, so it is hard to see her turning the tables on her over 1200m and with added fitness barring bad luck.
Prague is worth saving on purely because he is well over the odds. This colt was placed at Group 1 level as a juvenile and last preparation was only a length off Doubtland over this track and trip in the Danehill. He returned with a good run behind Peltzer in Sydney and his trial in between that and this run point to him being spot on for this race.
Brooklyn Hustle will win a big race like this eventually, but she does make it hard for herself. She should have won the Oakleigh Plate on resumption when incredibly unlucky behind Celebrity Queen why there is a price difference there. She will be running on late and if she catches the breaks, she can cause the boilover.
Recommended bet: Win bet on #14 September Run at $2.20, saving on #17 Prague at $41.
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Race 7: Matron Stakes, Group 3, fillies and mares, 1600 metres
A wide-open race awaits the punters (maybe the hardest on the card) but I’m prepared to back a couple and play around the favourite who is way too short. Silent Sovereign can go very close here. This mare has been terrific this preparation which is only building on her fantastic Adelaide carnival when she won at Group level.
First-up she was brilliant at Caulfield when flashing home late to grab victory off Need New Friends, and she again finished strongly when running a length off Quantum Mechanic over this track and distance. She can be closer from the ideal draw today (5) and should be ready to peak third-up which can see her make up the length over Quantum Mechanic from last start.
Sovereign Award has been poor this time in, but I am giving her one more chance. She was terrible at Group 1 level on resumption, before going too hard last start and fading late behind Rich Hips. She was only two lengths away from those types there though and she will get a very cosy time out in front and should prove hard to run down.
Quantum Mechanic was very good here last start and is a must for multiples, while Kansino rises in grade here but is in terrific form and maps to get the run of the race.
Recommended bet: Backing both #2 Silent Sovereign at $5.50 and #1 Sovereign Award at $10 for the win.
Race 8: Australian Cup, Group 1, WFA, 2000 metres
The time-honoured Australian Cup finally arrives here at Flemington and it must be said, it is a relatively poor edition of the race. However, there is a couple of betting opportunities in it. Fifty Stars is a deserved favourite and should really be winning this. He won this race last year over a much better field than what he faces today, beating Regal Power (all-star mile winner) and Vow and Declare (Melbourne Cup winner).
He was flat first-up this preparation in Sydney, but I thought he was brilliant here last start, finishing half a length off Star of the Seas, who is a proper Group 1 performer, after sustaining a long run. He loves Flemington (11:4-3-0) and goes like a bomb third-up (6:4-0-0). With luck, he is the winner.
I want to be saving on San Huberto. He had to do a power of work in the Sandown Cup last prep and I thought he went incredibly well to only run two lengths off Carif and Realms of Flower. It looks as though he has come back in great order after a terrific effort first-up when being caught wide and without cover throughout, yet still fighting back off the canvas to run half a length off Defibrillate. He draws perfectly here (6), is undefeated second-up and this is a clear target race.
Chapada was the pick of the runs in the Peter Young Stakes which a few of these are coming out of. He should be able to slot in somewhere around midfield and prove hard to hold out, while Humidor is a proven WFA horse and improves dramatically second-up.
Recommended bet: Win bet on #3 Fifty Stars at $4.80, saving on #13 San Huberto at $26.
Race 9: Kewney Stakes, Group 2, three-year-olds, fillies, 1600 metres
We finish off the program with a race over the mile with a few very good types with eyes on bigger and better things. I have a big opinion of Miss Guggenheim and she looks hard to beat here. The Price-trained filly was fantastic last preparation when breaking her maiden at Geelong, beating the likes of Pensato and Star of Eden who then were competitive at Group level subsequently.
She then went to Flemington over this track and trip and was without luck. She was tipped out and resumed at Caulfield over 1400m when she just ran into backsides throughout the straight. The wide barrier (10) is advantageous here as she needs clear galloping room and she is a horse that will relish Flemington.
Personal is the main danger. The Victorian Oaks winner was very good resuming, running second to Zou Dancer. She was never going to win first-up over 1400m but getting out to the mile with the added fitness is a recipe for success for this horse.
Chica Fuerte closed off well on resumption and is another who will appreciate the mile. She should get the run of the race which gives her some hope.
Recommended bet: #10 Miss Guggenheim E/W at $6.50.
Race 9 #10 Miss Guggenheim
Race 3 #2 Pretty Brazen
Race 8 #13 San Huberto