What Victoria's COVID-19 tally could have looked like: 36,000 dead
Victoria's coronavirus tally could have soared to 58,000 infections per day, if strict stay-at-home restrictions had not been put in place, new modelling shows.
Victoria's coronavirus tally could have soared to an alarming 58,000 infections per day, if the state had not put in place its strict stay-at-home restrictions, new modelling shows.
The state-based modelling, undertaken by Monash University and the Doherty Institute, in collaboration with epidemiology experts in the Department of Health and Human Services, showed as many as 36,000 Victorians would have died during the pandemic.
An average of 70 lives would have been lost per day, hiking to 650 deaths in a day throughout the peak.
Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton said the social distancing and stage three regulations had saved thousands of lives by slowing down the virus.
"Hundreds of thousands of Victorians would have been infected, if we just had isolation and quarantine in place. Clearly we saw that at the time and we put measures in place," Prof. Sutton said.
"We planned for 4000 ICU beds on the basis that we were never going to let this be an unmitigated pandemic. We would always take actions to flatten this curve.
"They've been more successful than maybe we could have imagined. So, we're not looking at a requirement for these beds."
The data also revealed that if a business-as-usual approach had been adopted, the state's health system would have been overrun with 10,000 intensive care beds required. Up to 9200 patients would have presented to Victorian hospitals every day.
Premier Daniel Andrews said the state's restrictions were working to slow the spread of COVID-19, making it possible for some social restrictions to perhaps be lifted in coming weeks.
It comes as just one new case has been recorded in Victoria overnight, bringing the state infection tally to 1,329.
"It's frustrating, very difficult, no-one is enjoying it, but people are following the rules and it is working, making a big difference," Mr Andrews said.
"That gives us options down the track that would not be available to us without the very low case numbers. Options that are not available to so many cities, states, countries, right across the world, where this virus has got away from them.
"I think there are some areas where we might be able to make changes in around the way people interact, around some of the more social measures."
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